01Cascade modelingA trigger fires; Horizon traces the chain reaction wave by wave, instrument by instrument.
02Scenario pathsRanked best, base and worst outcomes, each carrying its own probability range.
03Confidence per linkEach link in the cascade carries a confidence grade. Forecasting without false precision.
04Sealed at issueEvery forecast is hash-sealed and timestamped the moment it is made. NEXI Verify seals it.
05Scored against outcomesThe track record is published, the hits and the misses, on one open ledger.
Horizon is in active build. Every forecast ships labelled uncalibrated until an independent, published track record earns it a higher mark. Horizon forecasts — it is not investment advice.
§ 02Who it is for
For decisions that turn on what comes next.
01Investment and riskFunds and allocators sizing exposure to a shock before it moves through the market.
02Corporate strategyStrategy and risk desks that have to brief a board on what a disruption does next.
03Policy and sovereignMinistries and multilaterals modeling how a trigger propagates across borders.
04Re and insuranceCarriers pricing tail risk who need the cascade made explicit, link by link.
§ 03The discipline
Three rules forecasting rarely keeps.
A forecast is only worth its track record. Horizon publishes the record.
01No forecast without its evidenceThe source chain and the method are attached to every forecast Horizon issues.
02No number without its uncertaintyEvery figure carries a confidence range. A point estimate alone is not shipped.
03No forecast left un-scoredSealed when made, then scored against what actually happened — in the open.
§ 04Perimeter
Honest about what it will and will not take on.
In scopeWhere Horizon runs
01Cascade modeling of market and geopolitical shocks
02Scenario paths at longer horizons, with confidence ranges
03Forecasts sealed at issue and scored against outcomes
Out of scopeWhere it declines
01Investment advice or tradeable signals — Horizon forecasts, it does not advise
02Sentiment and cultural research — that is Spectra
03Any forecast shown without its calibration status
§ 05The Founding Charter
Six charters. The calibration partnership.
Horizon is being built with its first members, not sold to them — six charters, and we are choosing carefully.
Who we takeBy application
01A real forecasting functionAn institution that runs a live forecasting or risk desk — a fund, a strategy team, a policy body.
02A named sponsorAn executive who will score Horizon’s forecasts honestly against what happens.
03Willing to publishReady to let the calibration record — the hits and the misses — be made public.
04A decision that looks aheadA call that turns on what is coming, not on what is true today.
What a charter holdsHeld for members
01The charter rateA recurring annual rate, locked for a defined term, held through build and the first production renewal.
02A hand in calibrationYour domain shapes which shocks and instruments Horizon learns to model first.
03A voice in the methodologyDirect roadmap input with the people building Horizon. The member is consulted; NEXI decides. Influence, never authorship.
04First access, namedFirst production access when the forecast surface graduates, and a charter-member designation, named with your consent.
The termsSix charters, then closed
01Founding Charter6 CHARTERSA calibration partnership through build — your domain modeled first, the charter rate locked before Horizon ships.from $80K / yrCharter 01
02Standard rateThe production rate once the six charters are placed, set through NEXI’s own Verify Value Model.$180K / yrVVM-set
03EnterpriseCustom scope, multi-market or sovereign deployments beyond the charter.Request a quote
How the build is paidMilestone-gated
01M1 · scope accepted30% on a written specification the member has formally accepted.
02M2 · backend live40% on a working backend running in the member’s environment.
03M3 · verified output30% on output that meets the agreed acceptance criteria.
04The remedyFor a delay, the sole remedy is a service credit or a timeline extension — never a full refund.
Six charters. There will never be more. Charter 01 opens the lowest annual rate Horizon will ever offer, and each charter steps toward the standard rate. The charter deposit credits in full against the year-one subscription, on a minimum committed term. Horizon is delivered against the milestones above, with a service-credit remedy — never an open-ended deliverable behind one fee. Methodology, models and the standard stay NEXI’s sole property, and the charter rate is not a most-favoured-customer term. Charter enquiries: hello@nexiverify.com.