A trigger fires. The chain reaction comes out.
Horizon models what happens next — and ships the work sealed, so the forecast can be checked.
See the offers →
Receipt · Horizon forecast
Forecastforecast://horizon/copper-shock
Issued2026.05.21 · sealed at issue
Resultsha256:b1d05f6a…9e27
Sealed✓opentimestamps
Calibrationpending · uncalibrated
✓ Verified
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Cascade modelingA trigger fires; Horizon traces the chain reaction wave by wave, instrument by instrument.
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Scenario pathsRanked best, base and worst outcomes, each carrying its own probability range.
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Confidence per linkEach link in the cascade carries a confidence grade. Forecasting without false precision.
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Sealed at issueEvery forecast is hash-sealed and timestamped the moment it is made. NEXI Verify seals it.
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Scored against outcomesThe track record is published, the hits and the misses, on one open ledger.
Horizon is in active build. Every forecast ships labelled uncalibrated until an independent, published track record earns it a higher mark. Horizon forecasts — it is not investment advice.
For decisions that turn on what comes next.
01
Investment and risk
Funds and allocators sizing exposure to a shock before it moves through the market.
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Corporate strategy
Strategy and risk desks that have to brief a board on what a disruption does next.
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Policy and sovereign
Ministries and multilaterals modeling how a trigger propagates across borders.
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Re and insurance
Carriers pricing tail risk who need the cascade made explicit, link by link.
Three rules forecasting rarely keeps.
A forecast is only worth its track record. Horizon publishes the record.
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No forecast without its evidenceThe source chain and the method are attached to every forecast Horizon issues.
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No number without its uncertaintyEvery figure carries a confidence range. A point estimate alone is not shipped.
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No forecast left un-scoredSealed when made, then scored against what actually happened — in the open.
Honest about what it will and will not take on.
In scopeWhere Horizon runs
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Cascade modeling of market and geopolitical shocks
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Scenario paths at longer horizons, with confidence ranges
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Forecasts sealed at issue and scored against outcomes
Out of scopeWhere it declines
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Investment advice or tradeable signals — Horizon forecasts, it does not advise
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Sentiment and cultural research — that is Spectra
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Any forecast shown without its calibration status
Two doors. A place you can reserve, a Standing you are brought to.
The Reservation is a public deposit that holds your place against the build. A Horizon Standing is the recurring relationship — milestone-gated, priced to you, never to a list.
The offersTwo doors, plus enterprise
01
The Reservation
A public deposit that holds your place against the Horizon build. Transactable, and credited in full toward the first year.
≈ $20KCheckout
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Horizon StandingSTANDING
The recurring relationship — a milestone-gated build year, then the operated forecast pipeline and its compounding, publicly-anchored track record. Billing begins at backend go-live.
By introduction
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Enterprise
Multi-market or sovereign cascade modeling, custom scope beyond a Standing.
Request a quote
What a Standing holdsHeld for Principals
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The held rateA recurring annual rate, held for a bounded term then a bounded step — carried through the build year and the first production renewal.
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A hand in calibrationYour domain shapes which shocks and instruments Horizon learns to model first.
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A voice in the methodologyDirect roadmap input with the people building Horizon. The Principal is consulted; NEXI decides. Influence, never authorship.
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First access, namedFirst production access when the forecast surface graduates, and a Principal designation, named with your consent.
How the build is paidMilestone-gated
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M1 · scope accepted30% on a written specification the Principal has formally accepted.
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M2 · backend live40% on a working backend running in the Principal’s environment. Recurring billing begins here.
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M3 · verified output30% on output that meets the agreed acceptance criteria.
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The remedyFor a delay, the sole remedy is a service credit or a timeline extension — never a full refund.
The fine printRead before you sign
01
Build stateHorizon is in active build. The frozen-forecast ledger, hourly outcome ingestion, deterministic scoring and the daily public anchor run today. The customer-facing forecast surface is being built.
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What recursA sealed forecast never changes — that immutability is the point. What compounds is the track record: each resolved forecast scored against real outcomes. Re-fit calibration improves future forecasts, never past ones.
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Open and paidThe methodology is published open — the scoring policy, the falsification and adversarial specs. A Standing is the operated pipeline: ingestion, scoring, calibration and anchoring.
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The rateThe Reservation deposit is fixed and public. The Standing rate is quoted per account against modeled value, held for a bounded term, never published. Year one is a contracted build.
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Scope of the workHorizon forecasts; it is not investment advice or a tradeable signal. Every forecast carries a confidence range and a calibration status.
Rates follow NEXI’s Verify Value Model — modeled value, a pricing estimate, never a discount. Methodology, models and the standard stay NEXI’s sole property. Enquiries: hello@nexiverify.com.
Horizon is one of three.
01
Horizon
See what is coming.
Reservations open
02
Verify
Prove what was done. The launch product.
Launching→
03
Spectra
Read what is true now.
Standing open→