A trigger fires. The chain reaction comes out.
Horizon models what happens next — and ships the work sealed, so the forecast can be checked.
See the offers →
Receipt · Horizon forecast
Forecastforecast://horizon/copper-shock
Issued2026.05.21 · sealed at issue
Resultsha256:b1d05f6a…9e27
Sealed✓opentimestamps
Calibrationpending · uncalibrated
✓ Verified
01
Cascade modelingA trigger fires; Horizon traces the chain reaction wave by wave, instrument by instrument.
02
Scenario pathsBest, base and worst scenario bands from one calibrated propagation, each with its own probability range.
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Confidence per linkEach cascade link is graded A or B — A when historical calibration backs it, B when it rests on editorial judgment.
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Sealed at issueEvery forecast is hash-sealed (SHA-256) and daily-anchored to a public ledger (OpenTimestamps) the moment it is made.
05
Scored against outcomesFROM 2026.05.28Each forecast is sealed the day it is made; the first public scorecard — sealed forecasts against realized outcomes — publishes as horizons mature, first cohort 2026.05.28.
Horizon is in active build. Every forecast ships labelled uncalibrated until an independent, published track record earns it a higher mark. Horizon forecasts — it is not investment advice.
Run a cascade.
Scenario
Parameters
7
0
6 hr
0.65
Strait of Hormuz closure
The shock propagates across markets wave by wave — how far it reaches is up to the graph. Pick a scenario, set the parameters, press Run.
day
0
of 90
All values are illustrative and uncalibrated — every figure carries a confidence range. Horizon forecasts; it is not investment advice and not a tradeable signal.
Propagation engine · run here
The real graph-propagation diagnostics for this cascade — computed in your browser. Editorial mode: direction and topology are the engine’s; magnitudes are uncalibrated.
Signal inbox
Run the cascade to stream wave signals.
day0/ 90
waves fired0/ —
chain probability—
mean confidence—
For decisions that turn on what comes next.
01
Investment and risk
Funds and allocators sizing exposure to a shock before it moves through the market.
02
Corporate strategy
Strategy and risk desks that have to brief a board on what a disruption does next.
03
Policy and sovereign
Ministries and multilaterals modeling how a trigger propagates across borders.
04
Re and insurance
Carriers pricing tail risk who need the cascade made explicit, link by link.
Three rules forecasting rarely keeps.
A forecast is only worth its track record. Horizon seals every forecast to build one in the open.
01
No forecast without its evidenceThe source chain and the method are attached to every forecast Horizon issues.
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No number without its uncertaintyEvery figure carries a confidence range. A point estimate alone is not shipped.
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No forecast left un-scoredSealed when made, then scored against what actually happens as each horizon matures — in the open.
Honest about what it will and will not take on.
In scopeWhere Horizon runs
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Cascade modeling of market and geopolitical shocks
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Scenario paths at longer horizons, with confidence ranges
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Forecasts sealed at issue, scored against outcomes as horizons mature
Out of scopeWhere it declines
01
Investment advice or tradeable signals — Horizon forecasts, it does not advise
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Sentiment and cultural research — that is Spectra
03
Any forecast shown without its calibration status
Two doors. A place you can reserve, a Standing you are brought to.
The Reservation is a public deposit that holds your place against the build. A Horizon Standing is the recurring relationship — milestone-gated, priced to you, never to a list.
The offersTwo doors, plus enterprise
01
The Reservation
A public deposit that holds your place against the Horizon build. Transactable, and credited in full toward the first year.
≈ $20KCheckout →
02
Horizon StandingSTANDING
The recurring relationship — a milestone-gated build year, then the operated forecast pipeline and its compounding, publicly-anchored track record. Billing begins at backend go-live.
By introduction
03
Enterprise
Multi-market or sovereign cascade modeling, custom scope beyond a Standing.
Request a quote
What a Standing holdsHeld for Principals
01
The held rateA recurring annual rate, held for a bounded term then a bounded step — carried through the build year and the first production renewal.
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A hand in calibrationYour domain shapes which shocks and instruments Horizon learns to model first.
03
A voice in the methodologyDirect roadmap input with the people building Horizon. The Principal is consulted; NEXI decides. Influence, never authorship.
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First access, namedFirst production access when the forecast surface graduates, and a Principal designation, named with your consent.
Why a Standing recursThe ongoing value
01
A track record only exists if it keeps growingEach forecast is sealed at issue and scored against the outcome that follows. A Standing is what keeps that ledger accruing — and independently anchored, day after day.
02
Calibration drifts when the regime breaksA calibration fit in one market regime understates uncertainty in the next. A Standing is the operator-reviewed re-fit that keeps future forecasts honest. Sealed past forecasts never change.
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An operated pipeline you cannot self-runLive outcome ingestion, scoring, regime tripwires and a public anchor whose credibility compounds with NEXI’s history. A forecast you scored yourself is not independently scored.
How the build is paidMilestone-gated
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M1 · scope accepted30% on a written specification the Principal has formally accepted.
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M2 · backend live40% on a working backend running in the Principal’s environment. Recurring billing begins here.
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M3 · verified output30% on output that meets the agreed acceptance criteria.
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The remedyFor a delay, the sole remedy is a service credit or a timeline extension — never a full refund.
The fine printRead before you sign
01
Build stateHorizon is in active build. The frozen-forecast ledger, hourly outcome ingestion and the daily public anchor run today; the deterministic scorer is in place and scores its first cohort as horizons mature. The customer-facing forecast surface is being built.
02
Open and paidThe methodology is published open — the scoring policy, the falsification and adversarial specs. A Standing is the operated pipeline: ingestion, scoring, calibration and anchoring.
03
The rateThe Reservation deposit is fixed and public. The Standing rate is quoted per account against modeled value, held for a bounded term, never published. Year one is a contracted build.
04
Scope of the workHorizon forecasts; it is not investment advice or a tradeable signal. Every forecast carries a confidence range and a calibration status.
Rates follow NEXI’s Verify Value Model — modeled value, a pricing estimate, never a discount. Methodology, models and the standard stay NEXI’s sole property. Enquiries: hello@nexiverify.com.
Horizon is one of three.
01
Horizon
See what is coming.
Reservations open
02
Verify
Prove what was done. The launch product.
Launching→
03
Spectra
Read what is true now.
Standing open→
Common questions about forward intelligence.
01
What is Horizon?Horizon is NEXI’s forward-intelligence product. It models how a market shock propagates — the cascade of downstream effects — and seals every forecast at issue so it can be scored against real outcomes.
02
What is cascade modeling?Cascade modeling traces how an initial trigger — a closure, a shock, a policy change — propagates through connected markets and systems, with a confidence grade on each link in the chain.
03
How is Horizon different from other forecasting tools?Every Horizon forecast is sealed at the moment it is issued and later scored against what actually happened, so its accuracy is measurable rather than asserted.
04
Who uses forward and predictive intelligence?Decision-makers in energy, financial markets and policy who need to see second- and third-order effects before they commit.